The Asia Cup 2025 is entering its decisive phase with just four matches left, including the much-anticipated final, and the qualification race is heating up.
Pakistan gave their campaign a major boost on Tuesday with a gritty five-wicket win over Sri Lanka in Abu Dhabi. The result not only lifted them back into contention but also reignited the prospect of a dream India vs Pakistan clash in Sunday’s final.
Pakistan Stay Alive With Clinical Finish
For both teams, the contest was virtually a knockout after opening losses in the Super Fours. Pakistan’s bowlers laid the foundation by restricting Sri Lanka to 133/8 despite a promising 45-run opening stand.
The chase wasn’t smooth sailing as Pakistan slipped to 80/5, but Mohammad Nawaz (38* off 24) and Hussain Talat (32* off 30) kept their composure to stitch together a match-winning 58-run stand. Their partnership sealed victory with 12 balls to spare, keeping Pakistan’s Asia Cup dream alive.
Super Fours Standings: Tight Race at the Top
With the win, Pakistan moved to second place in the Super Fours table, level on two points with India and Bangladesh but ahead of the Tigers on net run rate. The current standings:
- India – 2 points, NRR: +0.689
- Pakistan – 2 points, NRR: +0.226
- Bangladesh – 2 points, NRR: +0.121
- Sri Lanka – 0 points
Qualification Scenarios
The next few matches will determine who books a ticket to the grand finale:
- If India beat Bangladesh (Sept 24): Sri Lanka will be eliminated, and India will book their spot in the final. Pakistan vs Bangladesh on Sept 25 will effectively be a semi-final to decide the second finalist.
- If Bangladesh stun India: All four teams remain mathematically alive. Bangladesh will move to the top with 4 points but won’t be assured of qualification due to their weaker NRR. India and Pakistan would still need victories in their final group games to secure a place.
- Sri Lanka’s slim hope: Only possible if Bangladesh lose twice and they pull off an upset against India — but their poor NRR makes this a long shot.
Bangladesh’s Double Challenge
Bangladesh face perhaps the toughest schedule, with back-to-back fixtures against India and Pakistan within 24 hours. Victory over India would boost their chances significantly, but to stay ahead in the NRR battle, they may need to win convincingly. A defeat, however, would turn their clash with Pakistan into a straight knockout.
India Hold the Edge
India, unbeaten so far, remain the most secure side thanks to their strong NRR and two remaining fixtures. Even if they stumble against Bangladesh, they’ll still have a chance to qualify with a win over Sri Lanka. Their position gives them breathing room, but they’ll be eager to seal the deal early.